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Pessimism Prevails: Businesses Cautiously Look to the Future
In December 2024, the overall Business Barometer Index declined to 39 points, marking a decrease of ⇩-0.4 points compared to the previous month. This is the lowest value recorded since the start of regular observations in October 2023.
Negative expectations prevail across all sectors without exception. The sectoral sub-indices of the Barometer remain below the neutral threshold of 50 points.
A moderate easing of negative expectations was observed in the trade (44.8⇧+3.8) and services (43.0⇧+2.5) sectors, though pessimistic sentiment continues to outweigh optimism. For the first time since April 2024, the Construction Sector Barometer dropped below 50 points (47.0⇩-5.9).
The manufacturing sector shows the most cautious outlook, with the number of skeptics increasing at an accelerated pace (32.9⇩-4.1)
Regardless of business size, negative expectations dominate across all categories. Only medium-sized enterprises showed a slight reduction in pessimistic sentiment (39.8⇧+1.8). In contrast, micro, small, and especially large enterprises reported an increase in respondents uncertain about economic improvement (41.9⇩-0.4, 36.4⇩-1.5 and 35.0⇩-7.2, respectively).
Exporters’ outlook aligns with the general business trend, reflecting a slight intensification of pessimistic expectations (38.9⇩-0.6).
Survey responses on the impact of banking restrictions on business transfers reveal that the vast majority of businesses (over 80%) anticipate some degree of negative consequences.
Specifically, 31% of respondents foresee complications in client relationships, 28% expect limitations in account management, 16% anticipate increased administrative burdens, and 6% fear a loss of competitiveness. Only 19% of respondents believe that additional restrictions will not affect their business.
Monthly, in addition to the regular survey, respondents can answer the “hot” question of the month and contact the hot line of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The survey is conducted in verified chatbots on Telegram and Viber and takes only 2 minutes.
The December 2024 report is available here.
The Business Barometer from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UCCI) represents the perspectives of enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI.
It reflects expectations for changes in the business environment in the coming month compared to the previous one.
Based on a survey that considers the status of indicators (or "sub-indices") of the respondents' activities across four sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, services), the Business Barometer is tailored to meet the needs of the members and partners of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. A distinctive feature of the Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialized industry questions and an analysis of export conditions, which provides additional insights into market conditions.
* - Extra questions that are not considered in the calculation of the Business Barometer.
The Business Barometer is calculated using the PMI methodology (Purchasing Manager Index):
PMI = (P1 * 1) + (P2 * 0,5) + (P3 * 0)
where:
P1 = % of responses indicating an improvement
P2 = % of responses indicating no change
P3 = % of responses indicating a deterioration
A value above 50 signifies growth or expansion in the economic sector compared to the previous month.
A value below 50 indicates a contraction.
A value of 50 indicates that there is no change compared to the previous month.
Attention! The indicators "Purchasing Prices" and " Unfulfilled Order Volume/Inventory Levels" are considered deterrents and are interpreted inversely in the calculation.
To detail the provided responses, a 5-point scale is used (will decrease – likely to decrease – no change – likely to increase – will increase).
For calculating the Business Barometer indicator, a 3-point scale is applied, and responses are summed up as follows:
