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“The Business Barometer” from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Ukraine Business on the verge of new challenges in November 2024
Improvement is forecasted only in the construction sector, where the Business Barometer Index stands at 52.9 points. However, the number of optimistic businesses in this sector continues to decrease for the third consecutive month (⇩-2.1 compared to the previous month).
Negative expectations have moderately eased in the trade (41.0⇧+0.6) and services (40.5⇧+0.2) sectors, yet pessimistic sentiments still dominate.
The manufacturing sector shows the most cautious outlook, with an increase in the number of skeptics (37.0⇩-1.6).
Across all business sizes, negative expectations prevail. Micro and medium-sized enterprises have slightly softened their negative outlooks (42.3⇧+0.1 and 38.0⇧+0.4, respectively). In contrast, small and large businesses report a growing number of pessimistic respondents (37.9⇩-2.7 and 42.2⇩-2.8, respectively).
Exporters' expectations align with the general business trend, though they show a slight easing of pessimistic outlooks (39.5⇧+2.0).
A recent survey highlights the readiness of businesses to tackle potential winter power outages. The majority of enterprises (59%) rely on generators as their primary backup solution. Meanwhile, 18% are actively investing in new equipment to enhance their preparedness. Alternative energy sources are utilized by 6% of respondents, while only 3% have ensured full autonomous power supply. However, 14% of businesses remain unequipped and are focusing on reducing energy consumption as a temporary measure. These findings underline the diverse strategies enterprises are adopting to mitigate risks during the winter season, emphasizing the importance of energy resilience in business operations.
Monthly, in addition to the regular survey, respondents can answer the “hot” question of the month and contact the hot line of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The survey is conducted in verified chatbots on Telegram and Viber and takes only 2 minutes.
The November 2024 report is available here.
The Business Barometer from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UCCI) represents the perspectives of enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI.
It reflects expectations for changes in the business environment in the coming month compared to the previous one.
Based on a survey that considers the status of indicators (or "sub-indices") of the respondents' activities across four sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, services), the Business Barometer is tailored to meet the needs of the members and partners of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. A distinctive feature of the Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialized industry questions and an analysis of export conditions, which provides additional insights into market conditions.
* - Extra questions that are not considered in the calculation of the Business Barometer.
The Business Barometer is calculated using the PMI methodology (Purchasing Manager Index):
PMI = (P1 * 1) + (P2 * 0,5) + (P3 * 0)
where:
P1 = % of responses indicating an improvement
P2 = % of responses indicating no change
P3 = % of responses indicating a deterioration
A value above 50 signifies growth or expansion in the economic sector compared to the previous month.
A value below 50 indicates a contraction.
A value of 50 indicates that there is no change compared to the previous month.
Attention! The indicators "Purchasing Prices" and " Unfulfilled Order Volume/Inventory Levels" are considered deterrents and are interpreted inversely in the calculation.
To detail the provided responses, a 5-point scale is used (will decrease – likely to decrease – no change – likely to increase – will increase).
For calculating the Business Barometer indicator, a 3-point scale is applied, and responses are summed up as follows:
