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What would hryvna devaluation mean for your business?
In March 2025, the overall Business Barometer Index showed improvement, reaching -9.7⇧+5.0 points, though it remained in the negative expectations zone.
Moderately negative sentiment continues to prevail across all sectors, with all sectoral subindices staying in negative territory.
Notable easing of pessimism was observed in the manufacturing and services sectors (-9.9⇧+7.4 and -4.4⇧+7.7, respectively).
Meanwhile, slight deterioration in outlook was recorded in the construction and trade sectors (-8.0⇩-3.7 and -14.7⇩-1.9, respectively)
Across all business size categories, negative expectations still dominate; however, sentiment has improved:
Exporters’ outlook follows the overall business trend and is marked by a reduction in pessimistic expectations (-9.0⇧+8.5).
Results from the survey question regarding the impact of hryvnia devaluation show that a relative majority (44%) of businesses see it as harmful. In the event of a moderate devaluation (up to 30%), the impact would not be critical for 15% of respondents. In case of a significant devaluation (over 30%), 15% of businesses expect a positive effect. Nearly a quarter of respondents say the devaluation would have no impact on their operations.
In March 2025, exporters demonstrated a notable easing of negative expectations (-9.0⇧+8.5), which applies to all indicators without exception.
A slight increase in the volume of services provided is forecasted (2.5⇧+16.3), along with a reduction in the volume of unfulfilled orders among exporters (10.8⇧+2.9) against the backdrop of rising prices for their own services (17.1⇧+4.3).
Other indicators remain in the zone of prevailing negative forecasts. Expectations include: а decline in new order volumes (-7.0⇧+11.7); a reduction in total number of employees (-10.2⇧+5.5); an increase in procurement prices (-41.8⇧+5.3).
It is worth noting that exporters’ expectations are slightly more optimistic than the overall sentiment within the domestic business community.
Monthly, in addition to the regular survey, respondents can answer the “hot” question of the month and contact the hot line of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The survey is conducted in verified chatbots on Telegram and Viber and takes only 2 minutes.
Access to the March 2025 report is here.
About the “Business Barometer”
The Business Barometer from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UCCI) reflects the views of enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI. It shows expectations regarding changes in the business environment for the upcoming month compared to the previous one.
It is based on a survey that takes into account the status of indicators (“sub-indices”) of respondents’ activities in four sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, services). The Business Barometer is adapted to the needs of members and partners of the UCCI. A unique feature of the
Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialized sectoral questions and an analysis of the state of exports, providing an additional perspective on market conditions.
The main goal of the Index is to provide enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI with a simple and accessible tool for assessing changes in the business environment in Ukraine.
The Business Barometer value of 0 points indicates no change in expectations. A value above 0 suggests that businesses anticipate an improvement in economic trends compared to the previous month. A value below 0 reflects negative expectations regarding changes relative to the prior month.
This publication was created by the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry within the framework of the project "Transformational Recovery for People's Security in Ukraine," funded by the Government of Japan and implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Ukraine.
The opinions, statements, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this document belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNDP, the United Nations, the Government of Japan, and/or other international partners.
