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In April 2026, the overall Business Barometer Index showed a moderate decline to -12.1 (⇩-3.0 points), remaining in the zone of negative expectations.
Negative sentiment prevails across all four sectors and continues to deteriorate. The most affected sectors are manufacturing (-13.1, ⇩-3.8) and trade (-15.9, ⇩-1.5). The services sector shows a somewhat better situation (-9.0, ⇩-2.5), while construction remains the closest to a neutral position (-4.0, ⇩-5.6)
Across all business sizes, negative expectations dominate, with a further strengthening of pessimistic sentiment among micro (-13.5, ⇩-3.3), small (-11.9, ⇩-2.8), medium (-11.9, ⇩-3.2), and large enterprises (-8.3, ⇩-3.9).
Exporters’ expectations remain somewhat more cautious than those of businesses overall (-13.2, ⇩-2.5).
Survey results on responses to the potential introduction of a 20% VAT for individual entrepreneurs (FOPs) indicate that a relative majority (39%) plan to split their existing business entity into several units. Nearly one-fifth intend to cease business operations altogether. Every sixth respondent expects to scale down activity to a minimum. Only 15% plan to continue operating while paying higher taxes, while 11% have not yet decided on their course of action.
Monthly, in addition to the regular survey, respondents can answer the “hot” question of the month and contact the hot line of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The survey is conducted in verified chatbots on Telegram and Viber and takes only 2 minutes.
Access to the April 2026 report is here.
About the “Business Barometer”
The Business Barometer from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UCCI) reflects the views of enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI. It shows expectations regarding changes in the business environment for the upcoming month compared to the previous one.
It is based on a survey that takes into account the status of indicators (“sub-indices”) of respondents’ activities in four sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, services). The Business Barometer is adapted to the needs of members and partners of the UCCI. A unique feature of the
Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialized sectoral questions and an analysis of the state of exports, providing an additional perspective on market conditions.
The main goal of the Index is to provide enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI with a simple and accessible tool for assessing changes in the business environment in Ukraine.
The Business Barometer value of 0 points indicates no change in expectations. A value above 0 suggests that businesses anticipate an improvement in economic trends compared to the previous month. A value below 0 reflects negative expectations regarding changes relative to the prior month.
This publication was created by the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry within the framework of the project "Transformational Recovery for People's Security in Ukraine," funded by the Government of Japan and implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Ukraine.
The opinions, statements, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this document belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNDP, the United Nations, the Government of Japan, and/or other international partners.
