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The Business Barometer has recorded a gradual intensification of negative expectations for the fourth consecutive month
In July 2024, the overall Business Barometer Index experienced a slight decrease to 40.0 points, marking a drop of ⇩-0.5 points compared to June. This represents the fourth consecutive month of progressively strengthening negative expectations, with a total decline of ⇩- 5.8 points since March.
An improvement is only anticipated in the construction sector, where the Business Barometer Index stands at 52.5 points, although the number of optimistically inclined entrepreneurs is decreasing (⇩-1.5 points).
There is a slight worsening in business expectations within the service sector (46.2 points), but the trend is positive (⇧+0.2 points).
The manufacturing sector is characterized by a gradual intensification of negative expectations (36.8 points, down ⇩-0.7 points).
The most challenging situation is expected, as last month, in the trade sector – 34.8 points, down ⇩-1.6 points.
A relative improvement in expectations is observed only among representatives of large enterprises (47.5 points, up ⇧+4.2 points). Medium-sized business representatives view the future most negatively, with their forecasts worsening significantly (32.7 points, down ⇩-6.2 points).
Exporters’ outlook for the future is marked by further strengthening of pessimistic expectations (37.3 points, down ⇩- 1.3 points).
A survey regarding the impact of the U.S. election campaign on Ukraine’s economy revealed the following: a majority of respondents (63%) predict a deterioration of the economic situation, while 30% believe that the election campaign will not have a significant impact. Only 7% expect an improvement in the economic climate, indicating a high level of pessimism among domestic businesses concerning the consequences of political changes in the U.S.
Monthly, in addition to the regular survey, respondents can answer the “hot” question of the month and contact the hot line of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The survey is conducted in verified chatbots on Telegram and Viber and takes only 2 minutes.
The July 2024 report is available here.
The Business Barometer from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UCCI) represents the perspectives of enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI.
It reflects expectations for changes in the business environment in the coming month compared to the previous one.
Based on a survey that considers the status of indicators (or "sub-indices") of the respondents' activities across four sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, services), the Business Barometer is tailored to meet the needs of the members and partners of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. A distinctive feature of the Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialized industry questions and an analysis of export conditions, which provides additional insights into market conditions.
* - Extra questions that are not considered in the calculation of the Business Barometer.
The Business Barometer is calculated using the PMI methodology (Purchasing Manager Index):
PMI = (P1 * 1) + (P2 * 0,5) + (P3 * 0)
where:
P1 = % of responses indicating an improvement
P2 = % of responses indicating no change
P3 = % of responses indicating a deterioration
A value above 50 signifies growth or expansion in the economic sector compared to the previous month.
A value below 50 indicates a contraction.
A value of 50 indicates that there is no change compared to the previous month.
Attention! The indicators "Purchasing Prices" and " Unfulfilled Order Volume/Inventory Levels" are considered deterrents and are interpreted inversely in the calculation.
To detail the provided responses, a 5-point scale is used (will decrease – likely to decrease – no change – likely to increase – will increase).
For calculating the Business Barometer indicator, a 3-point scale is applied, and responses are summed up as follows:
