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February 2025 – Under the Pressure of Uncertainty.
In February 2025, the overall Business Barometer Index declined to -14.7 points, reflecting a drop of ⇩-2.4 points compared to the previous month. Negative sentiment prevails across all sectors without exception, as all sub-indices of the Barometer remain below the neutral threshold of 0 points.
The construction and services sectors showed a slight improvement in negative expectations (-4.3⇧+3.9 and -12.1⇧+0.3, respectively).
Conversely, the manufacturing and trade sectors experienced a deterioration in expectations (-17.3⇩-4.5 and -12.8⇩-0.1, respectively).
Regardless of business size, negative expectations dominate across all categories. A moderate increase in pessimistic sentiment is observed among micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises in the trade sector (-15.7⇩-0.1, -14.5⇩-1.7, and -13.4⇩-4.4, respectively).
A more pronounced deterioration in sentiment is evident among large businesses (-20.0⇩-12.3).
Exporters' outlook follows the general trend of the business sector, marked by worsening pessimistic expectations (-17.5⇩-9.3).
Responses to the question regarding the strategic planning horizon indicate that a relative majority of businesses (38%) operate with an extremely short planning horizon of no more than six months. Another 18% plan only for one year. Medium-term planning (up to three years) is practiced by 29% of respondents, while 6% plan for up to five years. Only 9% engage in long-term strategic planning extending beyond five years.
Monthly, in addition to the regular survey, respondents can answer the “hot” question of the month and contact the hot line of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The survey is conducted in verified chatbots on Telegram and Viber and takes only 2 minutes.
Access to the Februaty 2025 report is here.
About the “Business Barometer”
The Business Barometer from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UCCI) reflects the views of enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI. It shows expectations regarding changes in the business environment for the upcoming month compared to the previous one.
It is based on a survey that takes into account the status of indicators (“sub-indices”) of respondents’ activities in four sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, services). The Business Barometer is adapted to the needs of members and partners of the UCCI. A unique feature of the
Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialized sectoral questions and an analysis of the state of exports, providing an additional perspective on market conditions.
The main goal of the Index is to provide enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI with a simple and accessible tool for assessing changes in the business environment in Ukraine.
The Business Barometer value of 0 points indicates no change in expectations. A value above 0 suggests that businesses anticipate an improvement in economic trends compared to the previous month. A value below 0 reflects negative expectations regarding changes relative to the prior month.
This publication was created by the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry within the framework of the project "Transformational Recovery for People's Security in Ukraine," funded by the Government of Japan and implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Ukraine.
The opinions, statements, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this document belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNDP, the United Nations, the Government of Japan, and/or other international partners.
