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In January 2026, the overall Business Barometer index declined to –11.5 (⇩ –4.2points), reaching its lowest level in the past six months.
Negative sentiment prevails across all four sectors: manufacturing (–12.7, ⇩ –2.1), construction (–4.3, ⇩ –4.3), services (–9.3, ⇩ –7.7), and trade (–14.6, ⇩ –5.9)
Similarly, negative expectations dominate across all business size categories, with a clear trend toward increasing pessimism. A further deterioration in sentiment was recorded among micro (–13.2, ⇩ –6.2), small (–9.4, ⇩ –2.6), medium-sized (–12.3, ⇩ –3.8), and large enterprises (–9.0, ⇩ –2.3).
Exporters’ expectations remain more pessimistic than those of businesses overall (–13.4, ⇩ –2.8).
The survey results on business readiness to invest in a potential free economic zone in Donbas indicate that a relative majority of respondents (46%) are not currently considering such investments and have no plans to do so. An additional 12% are not considering investment at this stage but do not rule it out. Only 8% of businesses are considering and ready to invest, while a further 13% would consider investment under certain conditions, such as security, guarantees, and the tax regime. Nearly one-fifth of respondents stated that it is difficult to answer this question at present and too early to assess the feasibility of such investments.
Monthly, in addition to the regular survey, respondents can answer the “hot” question of the month and contact the hot line of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The survey is conducted in verified chatbots on Telegram and Viber and takes only 2 minutes.
Access to the January 2026 report is here.
About the “Business Barometer”
The Business Barometer from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UCCI) reflects the views of enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI. It shows expectations regarding changes in the business environment for the upcoming month compared to the previous one.
It is based on a survey that takes into account the status of indicators (“sub-indices”) of respondents’ activities in four sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, services). The Business Barometer is adapted to the needs of members and partners of the UCCI. A unique feature of the
Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialized sectoral questions and an analysis of the state of exports, providing an additional perspective on market conditions.
The main goal of the Index is to provide enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI with a simple and accessible tool for assessing changes in the business environment in Ukraine.
The Business Barometer value of 0 points indicates no change in expectations. A value above 0 suggests that businesses anticipate an improvement in economic trends compared to the previous month. A value below 0 reflects negative expectations regarding changes relative to the prior month.
This publication was created by the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry within the framework of the project "Transformational Recovery for People's Security in Ukraine," funded by the Government of Japan and implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Ukraine.
The opinions, statements, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this document belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNDP, the United Nations, the Government of Japan, and/or other international partners.
