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A decrease in negative expectations and a rise in optimism in key sectors.
In September 2024, the overall Business Barometer Index rose to 42.5 points, reflecting an increase of ⇧+1.7 compared to August. This marks the second consecutive month of a gradual easing in negative expectations.
Improvement is anticipated in the construction sector, where the Business Barometer Index stands at 57.3 points, though the number of optimistic entrepreneurs has slightly decreased (⇩-0.5).
Moderate intensification of negative expectations was recorded in the trade sector (44.8 ⇩-2.2), yet the outlook here remains more favorable than in manufacturing and services.
In the services sector, while still in the zone of negative expectations, there is a gradual softening of pessimism (40.8 ⇧+2.8). Similarly, the manufacturing sector is witnessing a slow increase in optimism (40.4 ⇧+1.9).
Positive expectations are prevalent only among large enterprises, with a consistent upward trend over the past four months (57.2 ⇧+4.6). Micro, small, and medium-sized businesses, despite a general strengthening of optimistic outlooks, remain cautious about the future. The Barometer values for these business groups do not exceed 43 points.
Exporters’ outlook is characterized by a further easing of pessimistic expectations (41.4 ⇧+3.6).
The survey results on participation in the “National Cashback” program show that while there is some interest, a significant portion of businesses require more information or time to decide on their participation. The largest share of respondents (36%) does not plan to join the program. 29% are still undecided, and 17% are unaware of the program. Only 14% plan to join, and just 4% have already participated, indicating the early stage of the program’s implementation.
Monthly, in addition to the regular survey, respondents can answer the “hot” question of the month and contact the hot line of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The survey is conducted in verified chatbots on Telegram and Viber and takes only 2 minutes.
The September 2024 report is available here.
The Business Barometer from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UCCI) represents the perspectives of enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI.
It reflects expectations for changes in the business environment in the coming month compared to the previous one.
Based on a survey that considers the status of indicators (or "sub-indices") of the respondents' activities across four sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, services), the Business Barometer is tailored to meet the needs of the members and partners of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. A distinctive feature of the Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialized industry questions and an analysis of export conditions, which provides additional insights into market conditions.
* - Extra questions that are not considered in the calculation of the Business Barometer.
The Business Barometer is calculated using the PMI methodology (Purchasing Manager Index):
PMI = (P1 * 1) + (P2 * 0,5) + (P3 * 0)
where:
P1 = % of responses indicating an improvement
P2 = % of responses indicating no change
P3 = % of responses indicating a deterioration
A value above 50 signifies growth or expansion in the economic sector compared to the previous month.
A value below 50 indicates a contraction.
A value of 50 indicates that there is no change compared to the previous month.
Attention! The indicators "Purchasing Prices" and " Unfulfilled Order Volume/Inventory Levels" are considered deterrents and are interpreted inversely in the calculation.
To detail the provided responses, a 5-point scale is used (will decrease – likely to decrease – no change – likely to increase – will increase).
For calculating the Business Barometer indicator, a 3-point scale is applied, and responses are summed up as follows:
