Become a member of the UCCI
Deepening Pessimism: June 2025 Shows No Signs of Recovery
In June 2025, the overall Business Barometer Index declined to -13.9 points (⇩-3.0), remaining in the zone of negative expectations.
Only the construction sector showed near-neutral business sentiment (0.7 ⇩-4.8), while negative expectations continued to dominate in the manufacturing (-18.0 ⇩-4.1), services (-8.4 ⇧+0.4), and trade (-15.2 ⇩-3.9) sectors
Across all business size categories, negative expectations prevail. Pessimism has intensified among micro-enterprises (-13.3 ⇩-3.3) and small enterprises (-15.3 ⇩-8.4), while medium-sized (-14.4 ⇧+1.1) and large enterprises (-5.2 ⇧+4.3) have shown slight improvement.
Exporters' expectations remain more pessimistic than those of businesses in general (-16.3 ⇩-0.6).
Survey findings on the accelerated closure of sole proprietorships (FOPs) in 2025 indicate that a significant share of businesses (42%) attribute this trend to deteriorating business conditions. Meanwhile, 10% of respondents link it to business migration abroad. 25% state they lack sufficient information to assess the trend, and 8% believe it is insignificant for understanding the real economic situation. Only 14% interpret it as a sign of economic formalization (de-shadowing).
Monthly, in addition to the regular survey, respondents can answer the “hot” question of the month and contact the hot line of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The survey is conducted in verified chatbots on Telegram and Viber and takes only 2 minutes.
Access to the June 2025 report is here.
About the “Business Barometer”
The Business Barometer from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UCCI) reflects the views of enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI. It shows expectations regarding changes in the business environment for the upcoming month compared to the previous one.
It is based on a survey that takes into account the status of indicators (“sub-indices”) of respondents’ activities in four sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, services). The Business Barometer is adapted to the needs of members and partners of the UCCI. A unique feature of the
Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialized sectoral questions and an analysis of the state of exports, providing an additional perspective on market conditions.
The main goal of the Index is to provide enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI with a simple and accessible tool for assessing changes in the business environment in Ukraine.
The Business Barometer value of 0 points indicates no change in expectations. A value above 0 suggests that businesses anticipate an improvement in economic trends compared to the previous month. A value below 0 reflects negative expectations regarding changes relative to the prior month.
This publication was created by the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry within the framework of the project "Transformational Recovery for People's Security in Ukraine," funded by the Government of Japan and implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Ukraine.
The opinions, statements, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this document belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNDP, the United Nations, the Government of Japan, and/or other international partners.
