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The first positive momentum amidst prolonged pessimism
In January 2025, the overall Business Barometer Index rose to 41.9 points, showing an increase of ⇧+2.9 points compared to the previous month. This marks the first positive momentum in the past four months.
However, negative sentiments continue to dominate across all sectors, with sub-indices of the Barometer remaining below the neutral 50-point threshold.
Notably, pessimistic expectations have significantly weakened in the manufacturing sector (40.7⇧+7.8), though negative outlooks still prevail over positive ones.
For the fifth consecutive month, future assessments have deteriorated among representatives of the construction sector (44.6⇩-2.4).
In the services and trade sectors, there has been a slight intensification of negative projections (42.1⇩-0.9 and 43.7⇩-1.1, respectively).
Regardless of business size, negative expectations dominate in all categories. Nevertheless, small, medium, and large enterprises show positive dynamics (41.0⇧+4.6, 45.7⇧+5.9, and 43.1⇧+8.1, respectively). Only micro-enterprises have slightly reinforced their pessimistic outlooks (40.0⇩-1.9).
Exporters’ outlook for the future aligns with broader business trends, characterized by a slight weakening of pessimistic expectations (42.0⇧+3.1).
Responses to questions regarding businesses’ readiness for the resumption of scheduled tax audits indicate that the majority (over 50%) are either ready or partially prepared. Less than a quarter (23%) are unprepared for increased scrutiny from tax authorities. Nearly a quarter of respondents (26%) either "intend to avoid" or "hope to avoid" upcoming inspections.
Monthly, in addition to the regular survey, respondents can answer the “hot” question of the month and contact the hot line of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The survey is conducted in verified chatbots on Telegram and Viber and takes only 2 minutes.
The January 2025 report is available here.
The Business Barometer from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UCCI) represents the perspectives of enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI.
It reflects expectations for changes in the business environment in the coming month compared to the previous one.
Based on a survey that considers the status of indicators (or "sub-indices") of the respondents' activities across four sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, services), the Business Barometer is tailored to meet the needs of the members and partners of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. A distinctive feature of the Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialized industry questions and an analysis of export conditions, which provides additional insights into market conditions.
* - Extra questions that are not considered in the calculation of the Business Barometer.
The Business Barometer is calculated using the PMI methodology (Purchasing Manager Index):
PMI = (P1 * 1) + (P2 * 0,5) + (P3 * 0)
where:
P1 = % of responses indicating an improvement
P2 = % of responses indicating no change
P3 = % of responses indicating a deterioration
A value above 50 signifies growth or expansion in the economic sector compared to the previous month.
A value below 50 indicates a contraction.
A value of 50 indicates that there is no change compared to the previous month.
Attention! The indicators "Purchasing Prices" and " Unfulfilled Order Volume/Inventory Levels" are considered deterrents and are interpreted inversely in the calculation.
To detail the provided responses, a 5-point scale is used (will decrease – likely to decrease – no change – likely to increase – will increase).
For calculating the Business Barometer indicator, a 3-point scale is applied, and responses are summed up as follows:
