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«Business Barometer» by the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry                                                                      

Monthly Ukrainian Business Survey

Hot Issue: “Is the business willing to pay for the reservation of employees? “

In April 2024, the overall Business Barometer Index fell to 44.6, showing a decline of ⇩-1.2 points compared to March of this year. The Business Barometer Index remains below the critical 50-point threshold, indicating dominant negative expectations.

Improvements are expected in the Construction and Trade sectors, with significant increase compared to March 2024. The Barometer indices are at 52.5, up by ⇧+11.1 points, and at 47.2, up by ⇧+5.1 points, respectively.

The Service sector again showed a deterioration in business conditions, with an index of 46.3, down by ⇩-0.4 points.

After a relative improvement in March 2024, the Manufacturing sector is again characterized by worsening expectations, with an index of 42.2, down by ⇩-3.5 points.

Exporters' expectations have moderately deteriorated, with a decrease of ⇩-0.7 points in the Barometer Index to 44.3 points. Micro and small enterprises anticipate that negative trends will continue to dominate, with index values at 44.0 and 43.9 points, respectively, after declines of ⇩-3.5 to ⇩-2.6 points.

Medium and large enterprises are more confident about the future than micro and small ones, with Barometer scores at 45.8 and 47.8 points, respectively, showing increases from March 2024 of ⇧+2.9 and ⇧+2.2 points.

Responses to the pressing issue of the month reveal the business stance on the economic reservation of employees. Only 9% of respondents are not ready to pay for reserving employees. Sixty-four percent are willing to reserve employees, but the decision depends on the terms of reservation and the number of employees they are ready to reserve. Only 11% of businesses are ready to reserve on any terms, and 16% support the current government model for reservation.

 

                                           

 

The April 2024 report is available here.

 

 

The Business Barometer from the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UCCI) represents the perspectives of enterprises and entrepreneurs who are members and partners of the UCCI.

It reflects expectations for changes in the business environment in the coming month compared to the previous one.

Based on a survey that considers the status of indicators  (or "sub-indices") of the respondents' activities across four sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, services), the Business Barometer is tailored to meet the needs of the members and partners of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. A distinctive feature of the Business Barometer is the inclusion of specialized industry questions and an analysis of export conditions, which provides additional insights into market conditions.

  • The survey covers questions regarding:
  • Volume of new orders/purchase of goods;
  • Production volumes/turnover;
  • Total employment;
  • Purchasing prices/contractor prices;
  • Unfulfilled order volume/inventory levels;
  • Prices of own production/trade margin*;
  • Exports*

* - Extra questions that are not considered in the calculation of the Business Barometer.

The Business Barometer is calculated using the PMI methodology (Purchasing Manager Index):  

PMI = (P1 * 1) + (P2 * 0,5) + (P3 * 0)
where:
P1 = % of responses indicating an improvement
P2 = % of responses indicating no change
P3 = % of responses indicating a deterioration

A value above 50 signifies growth or expansion in the economic sector compared to the previous month. 
A value below 50 indicates a contraction. 
A value of 50 indicates that there is no change compared to the previous month.
 
Attention! The indicators "Purchasing Prices" and " Unfulfilled Order Volume/Inventory Levels" are considered deterrents and are interpreted inversely in the calculation.

To detail the provided responses, a 5-point scale is used (will decrease – likely to decrease – no change – likely to increase – will increase).

For calculating the Business Barometer indicator, a 3-point scale is applied, and responses are summed up as follows:

  • will decrease and likely to decrease;
  • no change;
  • likely to increase and will increase.

  

 

This publication was created under the “Support to inclusive economic development in Ukraine by linking export strategy with regional development and SDGs” Project, which is funded by German Government and implemented by German Federal Company Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH in cooperation with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Ukraine. The views, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this document are those of the authors and compilers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the German Government, GIZ, the United Nations Development Programme in Ukraine or other United Nations agencies.